Some interesting analysis from Jonathan Scippa on BaseballAnalytics.org:

Tonight, Boston's Carl Crawford returns to where he started his career.  Crawford played nine seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays before signing with the Red Sox this offseason.

The start to his Red Sox career has been anything but easy.  Through his first 40 games, he had hit .205/.243/.280 with just one home run and 31 strike outs.  However, he's managed to slowly climb out of that hole and has raised his line to .246/.279/.393.  At this point in the 2010 season, Crawford was sporting a .296/.346/.465 line.

Here's a look at his SLG% heat maps through June 13 for both this season and last:

Data through June 13 (Click to enlarge image)

Crawford has simply not been as dangerous on pitches in the strike zone this season.  Oddly enough, he's hit the same number of HRs (6) and triples (4) that he did at this point last season.  However, he's striking out at a slightly greater rate (14.2% to 16.9% K-Rate), and walking much less (7.1% to 3.4% BB%).  As a result, his wOBA is down over 50 points from where it was at this point last season.

Crawford has never hit lefties well, but this season he's struggled greatly against them.  He's hitting .159/.216/.280 vs. LHP for a .222 wOBA, compared to a .324 wOBA vs. RHP this season.  In his career, he's put up a .264/.310/.376 line against lefties. 

Tonight, Crawford and the Red Sox face James Shields (TB) who is off to a 5-4 start with a 2.85 ERA with the Rays.  Shields has held lefties to a .232/.279/.379 line this season.  Meanwhile, Crawford has been bashing RHP over the last month, with a .419 wOBA including 3 doubles, 2 triples, and 4 home runs in that span. 

Source: BaseballAnalytics.org 

Jacoby Ellsbury of the Red Sox is off to a career year, increasing both his ability to get on base and his power over his career averages.  Some of his statistics indicate he is stronger.  The possibility exists that his year of rehabilitating his broken ribs turned him into a better hitter.  The first thing to notice is that he's smacking more balls for line drives:

Jacoby Ellsbury, line drive rate, 2008-2010.Jacoby Ellsbury, line drive rate, 2011.He's very good at lining the low outside pitch, but he's also doing better at smacking offerings in the strike zone as well.

The following table shows how his balls in play distribution changed this season.

With Ellsbury's wOBA over .700 when he hits a line drive, increasing his LD% helps his averages a great deal.  Line drives are not the only place he's getting better, however:

A higher proportion of his fly balls are falling for hits, not just home runs, despite him not hitting the ball as far on average.  One explanation may be that many of his flies are high line drives.  I thought that it might be Jacoby hitting the Green Monster more often, but his fly balls are producing a higher wOBA on the road.  He's hitting the ball solid and at a good angle, so he gets pure line drives that fall for hits, or long, low flies that hit the gaps.

We recently interviewed Mikey Adams of WEEI for our Three Up Three Down series on BaseballAnalytics.org. Here it is...

 1. What is your favorite statistic / metric to use when evaluating the effectiveness of a pitcher?

Still ERA, W-L can be very deceiving and WHIP etc. don't show responsibility for runs crossing the plate.

2. What's your analysis of the current controversy surrounding Anthony Weiner's Twitter account?

With all due respect to the Big Show's Weiner Wiener Line, these are 2 weenies nobody should care about, except Mrs. Weenie.

3. If you could take a baseball road trip anywhere, where would you go and why?

I guess Japan, because the women are hot, and I don't like wearing shoes when I eat.

You can catch Mike Adams on the The Big Show everyday from 2-6 and Planet Mikey on Sports Radio WEEI. You can also follow Mike no Twitter @MikeyAdamsWEEI

Comments

	Mike's show is the best thing on WEEI. Always makes the ride home better. 06/19/2011 1:27 PM
33TEK.....

	Classic Mikey 06/11/2011 11:27 AM
MONSTAH

Here is a copy of our most recent interview with Rob Neyer. This is part of the Three Up Three Down interview series we have on BaseballAnalytics.org.

1. What's your favorite statistic / metric to use when evaluating the effectiveness of a pitcher?

You know, I don't really have one anymore. Lately I've found myself just sort of eyeballing the strikeouts and the walks and the home runs. But sure, I'll check out FIPand BABiP when I feel like making the extra effort.

2. If you were the Commissioner of Major League Baseball (BTW: we would have to call you “Bud”), what would you be known for?

Hmmm ... I would probably be know for lasting about three months in the job, because both the owners and the players would probably hate my guts from the get-go. I think baseball should be run for the fans, while the owners think it should be run for the owners, the players for the players. I say a pox on both their houses.

3. It’s time to play “Which and Why”. Which would you rather win and why?
• The Oscar for Best Actor
• MVP of the World Series 
• Dancing with the Stars Champion

You can read more from Rob Neyer on SBNation.com. You can also follow Rob on Twitter at @RobNeyer. 

The following is an interview we conducted with Matt O'Donnell as part of our Three Up Three Down interview series on BaseballAnalytics.org.

1. What is your favorite statistic / metric to use when evaluating the effectiveness of a pitcher?

My favorite metric is Strikeout to Walk Ratio with WHIP coming in a close second. Take Jonathan Papelbon, he is having a great year and when you compare his Strikeout to Walk Ratio compared to last season you can see why. Last season the his K/BB was 2.71, this season it is 10.33! His WHIP last season was 1.26 and this season it is 1.05. If you were to just look at those two stats you can get a real clear picture or what a pitcher is doing.

Now let's compare those numbers to Mariano Rivera's. Mo's K/BB is 4.25 and his WHIP is 1.078. If you were asking which closer was having a better year and were just looking at saves you would choose Rivera with his 13 saves compared to Pap's 10, but by looking at K/BB and WHIP you could clearly see that Pap is having a better season.

2. Is it true that all bloggers live in their Mom's basement and they do their best work in their underwear?

I think the idea of bloggers living in their mom's basement came from a time when you had to be very tech savvy to have a blog. Blogging has become much more accessible to mainstream baseball fans so the number that reside in their mother's basement has likely dropped a great deal. Newspapers were quick to disregard bloggers and their contributions to baseball media until blogs started to impact their bottom line. Now some of the best bloggers are now affiliated with mainstream media outlets and most newspaper beat writers have their own blogs.

Many teams are beginning to give press credentials to bloggers and social media sites like twitter are continuing to change baseball reporting. With the lower cost of powerful technology it is possible to create high end websites and webcasts anywhere, even in a basement. However, most good bloggers have come out of the basement years ago. For the record I live over 3,000 miles from my mother's house and she doesn't have a basement.

3. If you could switch places with any baseball writer who would it be?

I would switch places with Craig Calcaterra of HardballTalk. He has found a way to write about anything he wants in baseball and gets paid enough money to do it full time. He left his job as a lawyer to follow his passion and seems like he is having a good time. I cannot imagine having a quality life with my wife and two great kids and being a beat writer at the same time. Craig seems to have found the perfect solution.

For more from Matt O'Donnell you can follow him on Twitter (@FenwayWest) or visit FenwayWest.com

Comments

	but we still dont get the Respct or credit from the "Main Stream" media we should. 06/08/2011 9:19 AM
MONSTAH

	Butchie and i both havve Deep Respect for the work Matt does. great interview 06/08/2011 8:37 AM
MONSTAH