Should the Sox Deal Lester? Butchie Says: YES

If there are two people in Red Sox Nation who would know if John Lester is finished as a front line pitcher it’s John Farrell and surprisingly or not Butchie. No one knows Lester better than the returning Farrell and if he has watched the tapes and seen that Lester’s rising ERA, whip, and dropping velocity isn’t a mechanical thing he believes he can fix,  than who are we to argue. Especially when your favorite nine year old Blogger, Butchie agrees with him.

When I told Butchie about the rumor he was a bit shocked. That of course is the reaction you would expect from any nine year old who loves his team and its players, but when he listened to my reasoning he nodded his head and said “Then Ben should make the deal”, and I think you all will too.

Don’t get me wrong, I love Lester as much as anyone.  His battle back from cancer to become one of the leagues best lefties is one for the ages. But you have to agree, his numbers are steadily drifting down or up as he gets closer to the thirty year mark. His ERA and WHIP has risen in three of the past four years. Some idiots might talk FIP numbers as a clearer indication of Lester’s worth but I say don’t be fooled by the foolish. In years where he has pitched a minimum of two hundred innings, his HRs allowed have gone from a low of 14 in 2008 to a gaudy 25 last season. Lester’s velocity has steadily dropped in since 2009 and his home away splits are atrocious. The fact of the matter is, while Lester still puts up decent numbers on the road, it’s just down right scary every time he takes the mound at home.

Over the last three seasons Lester has won a total of 16 games at Fenway. His ERA is an ungodly 4.62 and opposing hitters are feasting on him to the tune of a .271 average. Last season those numbers swelled to 6.13 and .302 - probably why he won just three games for the Sweet Caroline crowd in 2012.

Now for the same reasons I say trading Lester would be good for the Sox it’s also a reason why teams who are contending would want to give up top prospects for the lefty. As bad as his numbers have been at the Fen, they have been just as good on the road. In fifteen road starts last year Lester was 6-4 with a 3.20 ERA and gave up less than a hit per inning pitched. That .302 average against at home dropped to a pedestrian .238 when the sox were the visiting team, so you can see why Lester and his relatively friendly contract would be enticing to almost anyone.

Having said all this, do I think the Sox will trade Lester? No, I don’t see it happening. They still want the seats filled and the TV ratings high. Lester does that. And does it at a low price. And that seems to be the course of action these days on Yawkey Way - Bang for the Buck. Will Benny trade Johnny – No…should he -- That’s the story.

Butchie and I say Yes.